Can The Woolly Bear Caterpillar REALLY Predict Winter?

There is an urban legend not directly tied to Michigan, but one that many people use to gauge how bad our winter will be that has confused people and questioned whether or not people are stretching a bit too far to look into the future.

The myth is that of the Woolly Bear Caterpillar, and that the longer the woolly bear's black bands, the longer, colder, snowier, and more severe the winter will be. In regards to the Folklore, Weather.gov had to say about the myth behind this fuzzy little guy's ability to predict weather:

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Similarly, the wider the middle brown band is associated with a milder upcoming winter. The position of the longest dark bands supposedly indicates which part of winter will be coldest or hardest. If the head end of the caterpillar is dark, the beginning of winter will be severe. If the tail end is dark, the end of winter will be cold.

A Game of Centimeters

In addition, the woolly bear caterpillar has 13 segments to its body, which traditional forecasters say correspond to the 13 weeks of winter.

Time To LEAF It Alone

The truth is this thing has no more ability to predict the weather than a Magic 8 Ball. The truth is the Woolly Bear Caterpillar's coloring is based on how long the caterpillar has been feeding. It's also important to know its age and species play a big roll in its coloring as well.

So I apologize if I ruined anyone's dreams of replacing Punxsutawney Phil with a tiny fuzzy insect; it's just not based on fact.